Data reveals the Hamilton threat Ferrari can still pose to McLaren in the Chinese GP

After Lewis Hamilton and Ferrari dominated the Chinese GP weekend sprint qualifying and sprint race, the weekend turned papaya-colored with Oscar Piastri’s pole position for the big race.

Hamilton surprised in the early part of the weekend as his sprint pole took him to his first Ferrari victory — allowing him to climb to seven in the championship standings. But McLaren emerged as a contender once again with Oscar Piastri once the papaya outfit sorted out its strategic and timing errors.

Chinese GP data reveals Hamilton’s chances for victory

Make no mistake: Ferrari is still several steps behind McLaren. Both Max Verstappen and George Russell also appear to be faster than the Italian team — at least, over one lap — which was also the case in Melbourne.

There’s nearly a three-tenth gap in performance between Ferrari and McLaren.

So, where exactly is Ferrari losing those tenths to McLaren? If we compare the telemetry from Hamilton’s Chinese GP qualifying lap with Oscar Piastri’s, we can see that the MCL39 is superior in almost every aspect — especially in low-speed corners.

In fact, it’s in Sector 2 where Hamilton gains a slight advantage over Piastri thanks to strong braking and traction in Turn 6, followed by a sharp attack and approach into Turn 7, initiating the sequence of fast curves leading up to the braking zone of Turn 10 — where once again, the MCL39 has the upper hand.

More analysis from the Chinese Grand Prix:

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👉 Winners and losers from the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix qualifying

Despite those differences, Hamilton drove at an exceptional level, beating his teammate Charles Leclerc by just +0.094s. The Brit has clearly been the stronger Ferrari driver this weekend in Shanghai.

Leclerc was actually faster than Hamilton in both Sector 1 and Sector 3, but just like against Piastri, Hamilton gained the most ground under braking into Turn 6 —a gain making a difference, even against his teammate. Hamilton will start P5 on the grid, and Leclerc P6.

On the other hand, Ferrari and its tifosi have reasons to be optimistic. Hamilton’s pace during the Sprint Race, where no one was able to challenge him, was truly encouraging.

The British driver struggled with graining like the rest of the field, but the characteristics of the SF-25 and Hamilton’s handling of it allowed him to manage better than the others in the Top 5. He even managed to improve his lap times in the closing laps of the sprint race as the competition struggled.

Due to tyre graining, Hamilton lost on average around +0.174s per lap, the best figure among the top teams. Piastri lost approximately +0.234s, while Verstappen had the worst result, with +0.276s lost per lap. This was evident on track too, as the McLaren driver caught up with Verstappen in the final laps.

Hamilton displayed a superior management of both tire management as well as average pace during the short 19-lap sprint race on the medium compound — over two-tenths per lap faster than Piastri.

In short, in dry conditions, McLaren seems to have a clear advantage over its rivals in both qualifying and race trim. They are the clear favorites no matter the circumstances.

But Ferrari appears to have slightly better long-run performance, as was often the case last season, and Hamilton may be in contention for his first podium with Ferrari — to finally taste the champagne in red.

The Italian team made a setup change after the sprint race, aiming for more downforce to reduce tire wear in the main race.

Hamilton has stated he wasn’t entirely happy with the car’s handling in this configuration, but it could prove beneficial during the Grand Prix, allowing the team to properly execute their race strategy in pursuit of a strong result.