Lewis Hamilton and McLaren data reveals true China SQ story

Lewis Hamilton secured Sprint Pole at the 2025 Chinese GP – but how did he manage to beat Max Verstappen and McLaren in Shanghai?

Hamilton broke the lap record at the Shanghai International Circuit with a stunning lap that allowed him to edge out Verstappen. However, he also capitalized on a serious strategic mistake by McLaren involving both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri in SQ3.

Lewis Hamilton: How he landed a shock Chinese GP sprint qualifying pole

The papaya team sent both cars out as soon as the clock started ticking down from the eight minutes of the final Sprint Qualifying session. In fact, only McLaren and Mercedes opted for two attempts.

And that turned out to be a poor decision. According to the rules, only one set of tyres can be used per Sprint Qualifying session – in SQ3, that means the soft compound. McLaren went out with a heavier fuel load for their first run, while the tyres were still fresh.

Due to the high energy demands on the front tyres at this track, although McLaren appeared to be in contention for pole during Sector 1 of their second run (now on similar fuel loads as Hamilton and Verstappen), the tyres simply gave up through the fast direction changes of Turns 7, 8, and 9 in Sector 2.

Aside from this evident error – which likely cost McLaren a front-row lockout, as the ideal laps suggest – Hamilton delivered a spectacular lap in the SF25 to bounce back from a very poor opening weekend in Australia.

In the battle with Verstappen for Sprint Pole, Ferrari’s strong performance in the high-speed corners of Sector 2 was where Hamilton made the crucial difference to claim his first Sprint Pole since Silverstone 2021 – the very first Sprint weekend in F1 history.

That said, Hamilton did struggle in the final corner of the Shanghai circuit and barely held on by just 18 thousandths of a second. Verstappen clawed back more than a tenth in that single point.

So how does Hamilton’s pole lap in SQ3 compare to Piastri’s first attempt with a heavier fuel load? Two big differences stand out: first, Ferrari’s superior top speed, and second, the contrasting driving styles between Hamilton and Piastri.

Hamilton seems to have found his confidence, attacking corner entries much more aggressively than the McLaren driver. Piastri, meanwhile, made the most of the MCL39’s excellent traction on corner exits to extract maximum performance.

If we compare by mini-sectors visually, we can see that Hamilton was faster in the most critical corners, except for the braking zone at Turn 14.

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Looking ahead to the sprint race, Hamilton faces a major threat from Verstappen. The Red Bull driver already put up a strong fight against the McLarens in Australia despite having a clearly inferior car.

Now, with Ferrari and Red Bull on more equal footing, the big question is: are we in for a classic Hamilton vs. Verstappen duel like in the 2021 season?

With limited long-run data due to just one hour of Free Practice, one thing is clear: even though he starts P3, Piastri may have the best weapon to beat Hamilton and Verstappen. Norris might be starting too far back to be in the fight for the win.

And after a race in Australia where Hamilton took the fewest risks possible, how far will he be willing to push to claim his first win as a Ferrari driver? We’ll have to wait until tomorrow to get the answers.

For now, Hamilton can rest easy knowing that the immense pressure of recent months has been lifted—at least in part—thanks to an almost perfect lap. This could be a vital starting point to rebuild confidence and comfort with his new car.