Lewis Hamilton vs Charles Leclerc: The data behind Ferrari’s front-row edge

After unconvincing performances in free practice for the Austrian Grand Prix, it seems Ferrari finally managed to make a step forward, and with a bit of luck, they secured a front-row start ahead of the main race at the Red Bull Ring — something they were in desperate need of.

Although this time he looked more assured, Lewis Hamilton once again proved to be the slower driver within the Italian team, and it’s clear that his adaptation to the SF-25 is still ongoing. Let’s break down the data to see what’s missing for the seven-time world champion, and where he was losing time in Ferrari’s upgraded car.

Ferrari make a front-row challenge in Austria

After FP2 ahead of the Austrian Grand Prix, we discussed how the data suggested Ferrari’s upgraded floor wasn’t performing as expected. The gap was clear, as was the visible lack of confidence from the drivers on track. We knew Ferrari had decent race pace, but in terms of qualifying form, they still looked the slowest of the top teams.

The latest upgrades targeted the car’s biggest weakness — the SF-25’s floor — in an attempt to finally resolve the rear-end instability that has plagued them. What will surely concern the tifosi, though, is that the problem might be mechanical in nature — specifically with the rear suspension, which for some unknown reason doesn’t seem able to transfer the available downforce effectively to the rear tyres.

The early theory that the upgrades weren’t working fell apart after a strong qualifying session, where Charles Leclerc secured Ferrari’s second front-row start of the season, following his P2 in Monaco. Lewis Hamilton was right behind, taking P4, less than a tenth slower than his team-mate.

More from the Austrian Grand Prix:

👉 Mercedes look to cool off in Austria as W16 upgrades under the microscope

👉 Red Bull play the imitation game with RB21 upgrade for Austrian GP

Still, the timing sheets make it clear Ferrari remains well off McLaren’s outright pace, but being the second-quickest team in qualifying is still a solid result given how their season has gone so far.

Given the small gaps, telemetry data reveals the fine details that made the difference between Hamilton and Leclerc, with some potential insight into why Lewis is still adjusting to the car.

The minisector map shows that Leclerc gained his advantage in the final sector and on the start-finish straight; for much of the rest of the lap, the two drivers were very closely matched. The sector times confirm this: Hamilton was actually ahead over the first two-thirds of the lap, but his weaker final sector cost him a better grid position.

This was an area where Leclerc had been quicker throughout while qualifying.

When we analyse their speeds during their fastest laps, we can see that Lewis had built up a two-tenth advantage by the time they reached Turn 6. Leclerc made a small error in Turn 3; the rear lacked grip, forcing him to correct the oversteer with a steering input. Something similar, though less dramatic, happened also at Turn 4. Hamilton, by contrast, had a much cleaner run through this part of the lap.

That allowed him to pull a small advantage — but he gave it back through Turns 6 and 7.

Speed traces highlight the difference at the apex of Turns 6 and 7, two fast, front-limited corners. Lewis made no visible errors here — as his onboard shows — but the confidence he had in the car simply wasn’t at the level of Leclerc’s.

Sadly, this isn’t the first time we’ve seen Hamilton struggle to match his team-mate’s speed through faster corners. We can’t say for certain why, but one likely factor is a lack of trust in the car’s behaviour.

And that’s difficult to overcome when you know there’s a fundamental lack of grip at the rear tyres.

Those two corners were enough for Leclerc to erase the gap Lewis had built, and the advantage grew further through the high-speed Turn 9.

What can we expect from Ferrari in the race?

The Ferrari drivers are well placed going into Sunday. We saw in FP2 that the race pace is there — good enough, at least, to fight for a podium. What helps them is that George Russell starts behind them, with Max Verstappen only seventh.

That’s important because Sunday’s race will take place in higher temperatures — 10 to 15 degrees Celsius warmer. And if we’ve learned anything this season, it’s that when temperatures rise, Mercedes tends to struggle with pace.

For Ferrari, the warmer track could help with tyre warm-up and maintaining those tyres within the optimal window.

So, realistically, McLaren are Ferrari’s only true threat in the race. Losing places to anyone other than a McLaren will count as a poor result.

One factor that could work in Ferrari’s favour in the battle against McLaren is that Ferrari isn’t fighting for the drivers’ championship. This means they can focus on team strategy and overall points, something McLaren can’t afford to do with both drivers in the title fight. But if there’s one thing we’ve learned — it’s that Ferrari and strategy don’t always go hand in hand, so expectations should be kept in check, particularly since the team just lost out on second in the WCC last time out in Canada.

What’s certain is that Ferrari has taken a positive step forward — but their real test will come in the races that follow, where they’ll have the chance to prove whether these upgrades have truly delivered.