Amidst the barrage of Max Verstappen to Mercedes headlines, one key aspect has been left out – the line-up for the Red Bull and Racing Bulls teams.
F1’s rumour mill is in overdrive at the prospect of Max Verstappen racing with Mercedes next season as he reportedly partners Kimi Antonelli as the championship embraces its biggest-ever rule change. Making sense of the current situation, PlanetF1.com’s team offers its thoughts on the current state of play.
Max Verstappen will choose to stay
Red Bull: Max Verstappen and Isack Hadjar
Racing Bulls: Liam Lawson and Arvid Lindblad
By Michelle Foster
Mercedes is simple if you ask me, it will be George Russell and Kimi Antonelli flying the flag for the Silver Arrows as Max Verstappen will remain a Red Bull driver, at least for F1 2026.
The organisation did, in my view, sack Christian Horner to make him and his personal team happy.
After months of Jos Verstappen nattering and nipping at Horner’s heels as he told the world that Red Bull would implode if Horner stayed in charge following his scandal (ed note: of which he was cleared), Horner has been axed from his role as team boss and CEO.
The timing couldn’t be better for Red Bull as it can blame the team’s dip in performance if questions are asked and brush over what allegedly happened 18 months ago.
It is the Red Bull organisation’s trump, and to be honest, its only get-out-of-jail-free card that says it followed legal precedent in the scandal, but that it was poor performance that led to Horner’s immediate exit.
But what it hasn’t done is answer the huge, mega, team-changing Verstappen question – will he be there in F1 2026?
Yes, I say, he will.
Despite going backwards in the final two years of F1’s ground-effect aerodynamic cars, Red Bull held such a margin over its rivals in the first two years that Verstappen won 34 of 44 races.
It is baffling that he would throw the dice in light of those numbers. Yes, Mercedes dominated the new V6 era, but the all-reset change coming next season will play to the best overall package on the grid.
And if Red Bull doesn’t offer that in F1 2026, ’27 is another debate.
There will be two notable changes in the Verstappen medley as Isack Hadjar will replace Yuki Tsunoda, who, let’s be honest, has done much worse than Liam Lawson – the Kiwi just wasn’t given the time to prove that – and Arvid Lindblad, F2 championship hopeful, will make his F1 debut.
Tsunoda will, at best, be the Honda-powered Aston Martin team’s reserve driver.
Max Verstappen could move, just not yet
Red Bull: Max Verstappen and Isack Hadjar
Racing Bulls: Arvid Lindblad and Pepe Marti
By Henry Valantine
Following on from Michelle, I also think Max Verstappen will stay at Red Bull next season. As far as we’re aware, the levers to get him out of his current deal are predicated on him being lower down in the Drivers’ standings than he already is, and losing the ‘required’ amount of points seems highly unlikely.
Let us not forget in all this that Verstappen is contracted to Red Bull until 2028, and while there could be different requirements that could allow him to leave closer to the expiry of his deal, I don’t believe he will be on the move – yet.
If the Mercedes power unit is the class of the field next season, it would be likely be harder for Verstappen to resist a move from both a personal and contractual point of view.
Mark me down for a prediction for some kind of pre-contract agreement to be struck for Verstappen to move to Mercedes in 2027, with one or both of Russell and Antonelli placed on new one-year deals.
Mercedes has a history of shorter contracts for its drivers, and a direct comparison between its current pair would certainly make things interesting next season.
As for where that leaves Red Bull, I agree with Michelle that Yuki Tsunoda is likely to leave. I predicted in our pre-season roundtable that he would head to Aston Martin in a reserve role, and stand by that.
I’m still leaning towards Liam Lawson being retained, but he’ll need a strong second half to the year to help his cause. Arvid Lindblad is being spoken about as the next great hope at Red Bull, but another of its junior drivers, Pepe Marti, isn’t far behind the Briton in his second F2 season.
He has a couple of sprint race wins to his name this season, and should he sufficiently impress Helmut Marko, don’t fully rule out a double-rookie line-up at Racing Bulls just yet.
The magic will leave along with Max Verstappen
Red Bull: Alex Albon and Isack Hadjar
Racing Bulls: Liam Lawson and Arvid Lindblad
By Oliver Harden
If those lineups make it look like the old Red Bull magic has gone, that’s because it probably will leave along with Max Verstappen.
I have long suspected that Red Bull will turn to McLaren in the event of Verstappen’s departure to Mercedes given the team’s long-standing interest in both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri.
Yet with the rivalry between Norris and Piastri yet to properly ignite, the chances of Red Bull landing either McLaren driver is increasingly remote.
So Red Bull will be shopping in a very different – more modest – market for 2026.
Which is where Alex Albon comes in.
Albon has caught Carlos Sainz at a very good time at Williams and remains highly regarded at Red Bull despite his underwhelming stint as Verstappen’s team-mate across 2019/20.
Indeed, before he committed his future to Williams last year there were rumours that Red Bull was exploring the possibility of some kind of first option on Albon’s services for 2026.
Given the expected dominance of the Mercedes engine in 2026, it is quite possible that Williams will be a better place to be next season from a competitive standpoint.
Yet the emotional pull of Red Bull (Thai connection ‘n’ all), and the opportunity to lead such a successful team into the post-Max era, will be too tempting for Albon to resist.
It will, however, result in Red Bull’s weakest driver lineup since 2015, the year before Max brought the magic back.
And what of George Russell, you ask, if Max takes his Mercedes seat and Red Bull look elsewhere?
He joins Aston Martin as the Newey era’s long-term bet, with Fernando Alonso having one last blast before retirement in a Merc-powered Alpine.
Max Verstappen inks a Merc deal… for the future
Red Bull: Max Verstappen and Isack Hadjar
Racing Bulls: Liam Lawson and Arvid Lindblad
By Elizabeth Blackstock
As my colleagues have pointed out above, Max Verstappen is still under contract with Red Bull Racing through the 2028 season, and the conditions to trigger rumoured release clauses have not yet been met. I think we’ll hear news of Max Verstappen making a move to Mercedes — but I don’t think it’s going to happen for 2026.
F1 contracts are fickle things. They’re notoriously opaque and packed with release clauses that attempt to predict what could happen in the future, and no matter how much we think we know about them, there’s probably language in there that opens up possibilities for goings-on we could never even imagine!
All that being said, while I have a feeling that Red Bull has done everything in its power to lock Verstappen down for the first season of the 2026 regulations, I also have a feeling that Verstappen will be keen to test new waters, and that he’ll be eyeing Mercedes for 2027.
As such, I see Verstappen being joined by current rookie sensation Isack Hadjar at Red Bull Racing, while Liam Lawson and Arvid Lindblad will complete the Racing Bull line-up. Mercedes will ink some temporary contract extensions for both George Russell and Kimi Antonelli, but I do believe we’ll be hearing more about Toto Wolff meeting with Verstappen throughout 2026.
Believe in the process
Red Bull: Max Verstappen and Isack Hadjar
Racing Bulls: Liam Lawson and Arvid Lindblad
By Mat Coch
For all the rhetoric and speculation and lack of denials, it’s difficult to imagine a world in which Max Verstappen moves on from Red Bull next season. Ahead of an all-new regulation set, there is uncertainty among every team. There is simply no sure-fire way to circumvent that, and so one must play the odds. The teams best capable of adjusting, or catching up, are those with the personnel and facilities – McLaren, Mercedes, Ferrari, and Red Bull. Given that, one can understand why Mercedes is an attractive option. But is it really any better than Red Bull? Perhaps the vastly more mature engine programme swings it, but it’s line-ball. Given that, why rock the boat? Further, there appears no simple way out of his current contract, aside from paying huge penalties. And what’s the point in that for a year, at best? If Red Bull is no good next season, those performance clauses will be triggered then and he’ll be free to leave for 2027. Given all the unknowns heading in to F1 2026, is Mercedes really going to be that much better than Red Bull? And what if it’s somehow worse?
The bigger questions for me is, who partners Max Verstappen next season? It’s a critical decision as you’d think the next move is the one that will set Red Bull up for life beyond Max. The Dutchman will leave at some point, whether to a rival or simply to retire, and Red Bull needs to start getting its ducks in a row.
Of it’s current crop of available drivers, who presents the best immediate option, and who is the longer term prospect?
Isack Hadjar has shone this season. I was unconvinced ahead of his arrival in F1, but he’s since quashed any concerns. He’s fast and feisty, which have typically been hallmarks of Red Bull’s successful drivers. Head-to-head with Liam Lawson, he’s proven the stronger of the two, though the New Zealander does deserve some slack in our judgement given his hasty promotion and demotion to the senior team.
For F1 2026, I can see him remaining with Racing Bulls, helping lead the team as Arvid Lindblad, the youngster who looks like he could well be Red Bull’s next Verstappen or Sebastian Vettel, earns his stripes.
As for Yuki Tsunoda, after five years in F1, he’s no longer has a place with Red Bull. His links with Honda bought him time but, without those, the system must move on. He’ll be a valuable addition elsewhere, likely as reserve driver for Aston Martin, but Red Bull needs to trust the process that has created two world champions. To do that, it must promote youth, meaning it needs the seat Tsunoda currently occupies.
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