Christian Horner’s removal from his post at Red Bull Racing has seismic repercussions for Formula 1. Let’s explore them.
The shockwave of Christian Horner’s split from Red Bull Racing has spread throughout Formula 1, and now it’s time to consider the bigger picture that it represents.
Winners
All involved in the Red Bull power struggle
Ever since the death of Dietrich Mateschitz in late 2022, a power struggle between various factions within Red Bull is believed to have been waged.
Horner’s ties to the Thai side of Red Bull GmbH, majority shareholders Chalerm Yoovidhya and his family, are believed to have saved his job in 2024 when the details of the parent company’s internal investigation became known.
On the other side of the coin, the Austrian shareholding of Mark Mateschitz, son of Dietrich, which was represented by Oliver Mintzlaff and to whom Helmut Marko and the Verstappen camp are believed to be aligned, was suggested to have been in favour of Horner being axed from his job, before high-level meetings brought both sides of the shareholders back in agreement on Horner’s future.
But, with the team’s performance slipping away over the past year, this power struggle appears to have now ended, with those who wanted to see Horner ousted getting their way as support from the Thai side, presumably, has ebbed.
Yoovidhya and his family were in attendance at the Austrian Grand Prix where, following the team’s pointless finish after Verstappen’s first-lap elimination, the members of the family glumly exited the Red Bull Energy Station after the chequered flag; their disappointment in the day’s misfortunes was evident.
Logically, those happy to see Horner go could include Jos Verstappen, following his public calls for Horner to lose his job last year, although it’s been suggested the former F1 driver’s relationship with Horner has significantly improved since then.
Presumably, Horner will also shortly be removed as a director of Red Bull Racing, leaving Marko as the only current name on the company’s official documentation.
All of Red Bull Racing’s rivals
With Horner having created two separate spells of dominance during his 20 years at Red Bull, there can be little argument that he very much knows how to create a winning team.
Horner is understood to have commanded tremendous loyalty amongst his ground troops at Milton Keynes and, while the team may be on something of a dip at present, this year has already seen Red Bull produce several victories and pole positions.
With Horner out of the picture, Red Bull Racing has been somewhat reset. New CEO Laurent Mekies has proven adept through his time at Racing Bulls, but is unproven as a winning force at this point, while it’s yet to be established whether it’s Mekies or another name who will be the team principal.
Either way, Red Bull Racing has lost the team boss, only bested by Toto Wolff’s tally of titles over the last 20 years, and this, given the comparative inexperience of Mekies, only makes the Milton Keynes-based squad a weaker force for the time being.
Horner is known to have had uneasy relationship with several leading figures at other teams, including Wolff and McLaren CEO Zak Brown; both of whom presumably won’t be too upset to lose their long-time sparring partner.
Alpine
Alpine is yet to announce its new team boss after the departure of Oli Oakes earlier this season, although Steve Nielsen has just been announced in a senior leadership role, begging the question of whether there is still a role to be filled.
Either way, Horner is presumably now a serious target for Alpine, who have been somewhat rudderless in recent years after parting ways with Otmar Szafnauer in the middle of 2023.
Alpine needs a definitive line in the sand to start afresh, and Horner is known to have an existing strong relationship with Flavio Briatore, executive advisor to Renault’s CEO (whomever may succeed the departing Luca de Meo).
The availability of a team boss role, not too far up the road from Red Bull at Enstone, could be a fresh start for Horner. Taking over a team in disarray, like he did at Jaguar 20 years ago, and starting afresh with an underdog team and a customer supply deal with a Mercedes engine tipped to be strong, might just be quite tempting for Horner once the shock of the moment has passed.
Added to that is the prospect of a team ownership stake. After all, Alpine has been throwing around chunks of ownership to investors such as Rob McElhenney and Ryan Reynolds through Maximum Effort Investments, and to an array of leading sports stars through Otro Capital. What’s a little more as part of a lucrative offer to Horner?
Losers
Christian Horner
Let’s start with the obvious one, shall we? Horner has been removed from his post with little fanfare, not long after celebrating his 400th Grand Prix in charge of the team.
Given the fact that Red Bull Racing has been Horner’s baby since early 2005, this ignominious end suggests the relationship had been hanging on for some time, only to fall apart entirely when the on-track results failed to meet expectations.
Horner certainly appears to have been blindsided by the situation, having seemingly been in good form throughout the British Grand Prix weekend, while the personnel closely aligned with his leadership, communications chief Paul Smith and chief marketing officer Oliver Hughes, have also been stood down from their roles with immediate effect.
The abrupt ending to Horner and Red Bull, a chapter closing so unthinkable just 18 months ago, suggests that the British executive’s prowess as a manager was viewed in dismissive fashion by the senior management in place since Dietrich Mateschitz’s death.
Certainly, it illustrates how Horner’s lack of ownership stake, being that of a mere employee (albeit a powerful and well-paid one), meant he wasn’t afforded any leniency on team performance.
Contrast that with Mercedes’ Toto Wolff, a one-third owner of the Brackley-based squad as well as being CEO and team boss. In the last four seasons, Mercedes has been unable to challenge for titles and are having a broadly similar season this year to Red Bull’s level of competitiveness. But, unlike Horner, Wolff’s position has never appeared wobbly.
Horner himself has been linked with moves to Alpine or Ferrari in recent months, with uncertainty over the team leadership roles at both outfits. Having seemingly turned both down out of loyalty to Red Bull, Horner’s asking price may have just taken a rather large drop unless a bidding war for his services begins.
With Horner having been under contract until 2030, it’s likely he will take a break from Formula 1 and serve an extended period of gardening leave. Might he crop up again at another F1 team in the future?
Jonathan Wheatley
Wheatley’s departure from Red Bull Racing is believed to have been triggered by the existence of a glass ceiling at Milton Keynes, having been the most likely successor to Horner throughout last year’s off-track dramas.
But, with Horner cleared through the two investigations by external KCs, there was no prospect of upward mobility from his sporting director role and, after some consideration, Wheatley moved across to Sauber.
Granted, Wheatley appears to have landed on his feet after jumping ship to Sauber this year, coinciding with and contributing to the Swiss team’s rise in recent months, but one of the top team boss leadership jobs could have been his right now if timing had been a little more on his side…
Fred Vasseur
At a time when Fred Vasseur’s future at Ferrari appears less than certain as he awaits confirmation of a contract extension, the sudden availability (after gardening leave) of someone like Christian Horner on the team boss market weakens his negotiating position dramatically.
Horner’s proven ruthlessness at running a team, combined with his business acumen and political savvy, means he might just be the person capable of whipping Ferrari into shape in short order.
If John Elkann and Benedetto Vigna have been wavering on Vasseur on the basis of having been turned down by Horner out of loyalty to Red Bull, Horner’s sudden arrival on the market could spell bad news for the comparatively unproven Vasseur.
Red Bull Racing
If Horner’s departure was made as a last-gasp effort to appease the Verstappens, with Max’s head seemingly being turned by Mercedes and/or Aston Martin, the early indications are that this isn’t enough to guarantee his remaining.
After all, Verstappen has long made it clear that he seeks nothing bar a competitive car and a stable environment. His car, at present, is only sporadically competitive and, with Horner gone, his environment is no longer stable.
If Verstappen does confirm his departure, Red Bull Racing is essentially back to square one in Formula 1, a complete reset of everything; a new team boss and CEO, an unproven driver line-up with no clear path forward on who the next star is, and the very high likelihood of plenty more staff turmoil as other teams pounce upon the vulnerabilities.
The move to remove Horner from his role may yet prove to be premature, particularly if the 2026 car and power unit prove competitive in the new regulations, and appears to have been made based on emotion and sentiment rather than cold, hard logic.
Until next season, how is it quantifiable that Horner’s decision-making over the last year has taken the team in the wrong direction, presuming that it’s based on performance matters?
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